Description

This analysis provides a forecast of TRB prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-09-07 20.699516 24.880841 29.476656 34.874966 41.013273 47.747045 55.662826
2025-09-14 14.112859 19.454068 25.933192 34.247887 44.503769 56.606601 71.825252
2025-09-21 10.957868 16.838595 24.535670 35.078589 48.852145 65.933958 88.387651
2025-09-28 8.022953 13.719528 21.739717 33.406745 49.451730 70.227324 98.582123
2025-10-05 6.732485 12.579017 21.311004 34.626682 53.669032 79.129419 114.843818
2025-10-12 5.650103 11.500419 20.740433 35.455667 57.252368 87.231900 130.298900
2025-10-19 4.756678 10.527599 20.143771 36.090891 60.483130 94.896129 145.385886
2025-10-26 4.087421 9.796122 19.795607 37.000437 64.081051 103.149330 161.528215
2025-11-02 3.325297 8.716941 18.695566 36.558401 65.537848 108.327817 173.483308
2025-11-09 2.793143 7.968818 18.047792 36.746777 67.905976 114.856993 187.520678
2025-11-16 2.292393 7.161914 17.164894 36.415383 69.370451 120.038628 199.720392
2025-11-23 1.808092 6.257462 15.950275 35.351530 69.521712 123.170346 208.940063
2025-11-30 1.538641 5.839116 15.703941 36.126701 72.968088 131.828600 227.217807
2025-12-07 1.197959 5.121293 14.724874 35.446642 73.922707 136.684901 240.039939
2025-12-14 1.019863 4.805133 14.561093 36.297391 77.554903 145.914317 259.840268
2025-12-21 0.736331 4.028772 13.192118 34.580103 76.469301 147.418950 267.649286
2025-12-28 0.644265 3.869744 13.273517 35.833118 80.827640 158.004050 290.031602
2026-01-04 0.548979 3.655118 13.175061 36.684438 84.470463 167.510273 310.958364
2026-01-11 0.461330 3.426845 12.997669 37.336698 87.756159 176.512105 331.313082
2026-01-18 0.395331 3.258853 12.952818 38.270521 91.616513 186.609687 353.700662
2026-01-25 0.305175 2.912221 12.330550 37.816703 92.730536 191.990047 368.512816
2026-02-01 0.245949 2.682747 12.004171 38.010104 95.115821 199.643980 387.248732
2026-02-08 0.188573 2.410360 11.482345 37.669867 96.386702 205.349453 402.867681